The real games start tomorrow. Well, for the Reds anyhow. Of course the Red Sox and A’s began their seasons last week when everyone wasn’t paying attention. I hardly noticed myself.

Looking back on my bold spring training predictions, I’d say I did pretty good. I had Volquez making the rotation, I had Bailey and Bruce being sent down, and I had a dog fight between Hatteberg and Votto for first base, with Hatte making a strong case to start on opening day. I even had Paul Bako possibly making the team and driving everyone crazy, which he has done.
Considering C. Trent is bragging about only being 2 spots away from his roster prediction which he made only two weeks ago, I’d say I did pretty good having made my predictions before they even played a practice game.

Where I went wrong was not foreseeing the Corey Patterson signing. The writing was clearly on the wall with Dusty scoffing at OBP as an overrated stat, and even mentioning Corey by name when discussing centerfielders available via free agency. Somehow I just thought our duo of GMs woould veto such nonsense having two qualified leadoff candidates in Ryan Freel and Norris Hopper already on the roster. So I missed on that one.

I will now predict what goes down in the opening month, which is such a critical time as it sets the table for the rest of the year. A disastrous start, and the team may never recover. An early winning streak and the momentum can carry deep into the season. Momentum in baseball is huge. Once the fans and the talking heads start believing in you, the psychological trickle down effect actually makes the players think they are better than they probably are and anything becomes possible. Of course the opposite is equally true.

So let’s peer into the crystal ball and see what’s in store for the 2008 Reds in the opening month. Harang and Arroyo will be solid if not spectacular. Cueto, if slotted to pitch behind Arroyo, is going to struggle. His last 3 starts of the spring indicated he is not as major league ready as the scouts and media claimed he was after his first couple of outings. His M.O. the past 3 starts was to put base runners on immediately. Two of the starts he then struggled to throw strikes and took damage. His last start he struck out the side to escape trouble. In all three of his past outings he tallied up a high pitch count early and was pitching from the stretch often. While he clearly has more command than Bailey, his control definitely needs improvement, especially when he has runners on base. Personally I have him slotted as the #5 pitcher and I am hoping it still falls that way, but Fay and C. Trent have been pretty consistent in projecting him as the #3 starter simply because that is his schedule. However, Volquez has not pitched in 5 days and if he is not needed in emergency relief the first two ball games he is available to be the #3 starter as well. So I will make the bold prediction that Dusty gives the not to Volquez, not Cueto, for game #3. Edinson has a spring ERA of 2.70 compared to Johnny’s 5+ ERA, and his spring K/BB ratio of 26 to 3 is simply awesome. How can you not give this guy the #3 slot?

I believe Hatteberg gets the start on opening day [update: C. Trent is indeed reporting that Hatte is in the opening day lineup]. He had a superb spring, batting over .385 while Votto struggled barely cracking the Mendoza line. Votto made the team though, so I expect him to get some starts, perhaps when the pitching match up is more favorable. By the end of April he may be ready to assume the every day job.

GO REDS!