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February 10, 2011

Yahoo! Sports Summarizes the NL Central

So I summarize them.

Yahoo! Sports has an ongoing feature showcasing what each baseball team has done in the off-season and how they look for the upcoming season, plus a silly haiku at the end of each article. They wrapped up their last National League Central division team yesterday, so I thought now would be a good time to run through their opinions and analysis.

Chicago Cubs
The Cubs review summarizes the off-season activities, and there weren’t many. Basically, the team signed Carlos Peña to a one-year deal, hoping he’ll bounce back and post better than a .198 batting average.

Yahoo! summarizes the 2010 Cubs season beautifully.

Take a below average pitching staff, supported by a below average offense, backed by a well below average defense, prop it up with the game’s fourth-highest payroll, and what the House of Ricketts received in return was another lost baseball season on the North Side.

Unfortunately, with the huge, inflexible contracts the team gave years ago to the likes of Alfonso Soriano, Carlos Zambrano, and Kosuke Fukdome, 2011 isn’t likely to be any better or different. Several contracts do come off the books after this season, so the team is basically asking its players to “live up to their contracts, to return to their means, and to come to their senses.”

Cincinnati Reds
The Reds review focuses largely on the amount of guaranteed cash the team threw at its young players this off-season.

Despite the spending frenzy, the Reds reduced their payroll. They spent 13.4 percent more in 2010 than 2009, but this season it will roll back to about $73 million, a nifty sleight of hand accomplished through deferred salary and bonuses spread over several years like frosting on a cake.

That payroll will grow over the next few years, and it’s imperative that the team continue to win and increase attendance to keep the winning rolling. Considering the Reds’ recent losing history and the fact that the team is banking on nothing but home-grown players, is this probable?

Optimism is grounded in a fertile farm system that for the first time in many years is producing major leaguers at nearly every position. Votto is homegrown. So are dynamic outfielders Bruce and Drew Stubbs. Bubbling just below the big leagues are legitimate prospects at third base (Juan Francisco and Todd Frazier, shortstop (Zack Cozart), first base (Yonder Alonso) and catcher (Devin Mesoraco and Yasmani Grandal).

Things definitely look good down on the farm. And, if the Reds feel they have a hole to fill mid-season and fans are packing Great American Ballpark, all those good young players should make some great trade-bait.

Houston Astros
The Astros review starts with the news that owner Drayton McLane has put the team up for sale. I wasn’t aware of that happening, but until the sale happens, I doubt the future holds good things for the club. As the Cubs and the Reds have both seen, ownership change can be a rocky affair.

As it stands, the Astros have neither the offense nor pitching to stay with the NL Central’s three lead dogs – Cincinnati Reds, St. Louis Cardinals, Milwaukee Brewers – but are capable of making the Chicago Cubs feel bad about themselves again.

Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers review reads like a worship-fest of Brewers general manager Doug Melvin.

Part of what makes Doug Melvin such a gem of a general manager, aside from the resplendent mustache left over from the prop room of a Tom Selleck movie, is his strict adherence to nobody’s philosophy but his own. The impunity with which Melvin gutted his farm system this offseason was spectacular. Teams hoard prospects like kids used to Pokemon cards, and to that practice, Melvin slowly raised a finger. Which finger is rather easy to guess.

Melvin traded away his best prospects for Zach Greinke and Shawn Marcum for the last year that the team will have Prince Fielder. It makes them an early favorite to win the division, but will it be enough to turn a team that lost eight more than it won last year all the way into a contender?

Yes, the Brewers’ offseason was most excellent. Now that they’ve done well in the paper championship chase comes their quest for an actual one, and much of that will depend on their first two months.

If the Brewers start poorly, the team will have to decide whether to trade Fielder, and that would be a huge off-the-field distraction. To keep that from happening, the Brewers need their best starters to “start the year in midseason form.”

Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates review looks at their off-season moves in a mocking way. After 18 years of losing, who has the team turned to to turn things around?

Kevin Correia, Matt Diaz and Lyle Overbay, of course! Since the end of the 2010 season, the Pirates have committed nearly $12 million – around 40 percent of their projected payroll – to a starter who mustered a 5.40 ERA in baseball’s best pitchers’ park last year, a part-time outfielder with a heavy platoon split and a meek-hitting first baseman. Tack on a catcher with a $3.2 million salary and slugging percentage below .300 with the Pirates last year (Chris Snyder), and the Pirates are repeating the mistakes of yore.

I think the Pirates are spending some of that money because Major League Baseball told them they had to, but it does seem odd. Of course, many of the Pirates’ prospects aren’t ready for the big show yet, and they have to send someone out there. I believe all of the free agents signed one-year deals, so it’s not a long-term bad decision.

There is a minor amount of hope.

There are pieces. Not enough to win this year, and probably not enough to win next year, but if the Pirates can ever muster a couple starting pitchers out of their farm system to complement what’s coming on offense, there’s a chance that the streak may end at 20.

Wow. In just two more years, if things fall perfectly, the Pirates may win 82 games. Ouch. It’s gotta be tough to be a Pirates fan.

St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals review, like all Cardinals news this off-season, is all about Pujols. Pujols! PUJOLS!

The uncertainty surrounding negotiations for an extension that could give the slugging first baseman the most lucrative contract in baseball history casts a cloud over every other roster decision, every dime the team spends or won’t spend.

There were many moves the Cardinals could have made to improve the offense and defense, but were prevented from doing so because Albert Pujols’ contract extension was up-in-the air. Instead, the team rearranged some Titanic deck chairs, and replaced Brendan Ryan with Ryan Theriot.

Several things have to go the team’s way to win the division. The bullpen will have to outperform expectations and Colby Rasmus will have to not piss off Tony LaRussa and Pujols. Also, third baseman David Freese will have to be healthy and productive, while Kyle Lohse and Skip Schumaker need to have productive years, unlike they did last year.

That’s a lot of what-ifs, but they all pale in comparison to the one the St. Louis faithful are fixated on: What if Pujols doesn’t sign an extension, becomes a free agent after the 2011 season and leaves? Worse yet, what if he signs with the reviled Chicago Cubs?

Until the answer is clear, the Cardinals’ future is cloudy because general manager John Mozeliak can’t spend money earmarked for Pujols. And that might mean sacrificing another season.

As a Reds fan, I’d definitely love another off-year from the Cardinals. They’re due.

December 22, 2010

What the Brewers are Doing

You may have heard that the Milwaukee Brewers traded for Cy Young award winning pitcher Zach Greinke last week. That move immediately pushed them into the running for the top spot of the National League Central, making it likely a three-team race in 2011 with the Cardinals and Reds.

In 2010, the Brewers finished a distant third with a record of 77-85. The offense was not a problem. They were fourth in runs scored in the majors with 750. No, the problem was the pitching, and the starting pitching specifically. The Brewers allowed the third most runs in the majors, a whopping 804. It’s very difficult to pull off a winning record, let alone competing for a playoff spot, when you allow that many more runs than you score.

In addition to the Greinke deal, the Brewers earlier had traded for right-handed pitcher Shaun Marcum. He’s not as famous as Greinke, but he’s still a major upgrade over the likes of those they had starting last year (Jeff Suppan, I’m looking at you). Marcum has had three solid years in a row, and 2011 will be his age 29 season. He’ll slip into the number 3 slot in the rotation, behind Greinke, and Yovani Gallardo.

The Brewers did a great job in assessing their weakness and in implementing a plan to address it. It’s a short-term plan, especially considering some of the great talent given up for Greinke, but with slugger Prince Fielder signed for just one more year, the time is now. Run prevention from the starting pitching killed them last year. With these two pitchers, that should not be the case in 2011.

October 3, 2010

Brewers 2, Reds 3: Closing Day

Team123456789RHE
Brewers (77-85)002000000270
Reds (91-71)2001000003100
W: Maloney (2-2) L: Wolf (13-12) S: Cordero (40)

Boxscore

The 2010 baseball season has come to a close, and the Cincinnati Reds were victors for the 91st time. That’s right. 91 wins. It’s been a good year. It’s been a very good year.

Aaron Harang made what was likely his last start and appearance ever for the Reds. He started strong, striking out the first batter he faced on 3 pitches, but had to leave early due to a blister on his pitching hand. His final line was 2 innings, in which he allowed 2 runs and struck out 3. Harang’s contract is up at the end of the year, and there’s no reason for the Reds to bring him back, especially with the glut of good young pitching the Reds have. I’ll miss him, though, and always remember him fondly for the years when he was the only good thing happening in Reds baseball. It’s a shame he wasn’t able to lead the team into the playoffs.

The bullpen took over and didn’t allow the Brewers to score any more runs. And Jay Bruce hit his 25th home run on the year in the fourth inning to give the Reds the lead.

The Reds end the year in first place with a record of 91-71. It was an unqualified success for a team without a winning record since 2000, and without a postseason appearance since 1995. Now they get to prepare to face the Philadelphia Phillies next week.

Oh, by the way, the last time the Reds won 91 games? Just an insignificant little year in Reds history with the number 1990.

September 24, 2010

The Daily Brief: The Final West Coast Trip

Last Game
The Reds were unable to sweep the Milwaukee Brewers on Wednesday, taking a shellacking and losing 13-1 instead. The lone Reds run was driven in by Jonny Gomes. Johnny Cueto had his worst outing of the year, if not his career, and took the loss by allowing 8 runs in 1 1/3 innings.

Next Game
After a day off for travel yesterday, the Reds open a three-game series against the San Diego Padres tonight. This is the last contending team the Reds will play before the post-season and has all kinds of playoff overtones, with the Padres half a game back in both the West and the wild card. Plus, the Reds continue to want to improve their record and get some home-field advantage for at least the first round of the playoffs. Bronson Arroyo will take on Chris Young tonight at 10:05 EDT.

Fire Joe Morgan Day at Deadspin
I somehow missed this the day it was going on, but Deadspin got the FireJoeMorgan gang together again for just one day earlier this week. As expected, there was a post about Mr. Morgan. This one takes on the weird scene described in a sports article last month about Mike Leake slapping Joe Morgan’s naked ass in the clubhouse. The FJM guys apparently thought that was weird. You definitely don’t want to miss the “actual transcript of a real thing that definitely happened in a real game recently” at the end of the post.

They also did a brief dissection of one of Morgan’s ESPN online chats, taking exception to his claiming that there was no debate in who should win the American League Cy Young Award: Felix Hernandez or C. C. Sabathia. Morgan included this little gem.

I don’t buy into the point that if Felix is pitching for someone else he’d have more wins.

This leads FJM into one of the better arguments I’ve read as to why starting pitchers should never be measured by wins.

Felix has thrown more innings than Sabathia. And his job is not to win the game. His job is to help the defense prevent the other team from winning, which he has done better than anyone. The job of winning the game comes from the offense, which is about to set a 40-year low-water mark.

The Reds-related ones are entertaining, but all of the others are as well, especially the tearing apart of the cliche article about David Eckstein getting so much out of his talents. What is it sportswriters love so much about scrappy white guys?

What to Say to Sound Smart at the Water Cooler
With 86 wins, the Reds have their highest win total since 1999, when they went 96-67. The Reds cannot better that this year because only 9 games remain in the season.

September 22, 2010

The Daily Brief: Magic Number Now 4, Ah, Ah Ah

Last Game
Edinson Volquez blew away the last of the cobwebs from his Tommy John surgery recovery last night, pitching 8 innings of 1-run baseball against the Milwaukee Brewers. The 4-3 win increased the Reds lead over the losing Cardinals to 8 games and the elimination number to 4. Volquez also made an excellent claim to a postseason start with his excellent outing. The game would have been almost drama free, had it not been for Francisco Cordero and the defense being less than solid in the 9th. Cordero did pull himself together to strike out Carlos Gomez to end the game.

Next Game
Johnny Cueto goes to the mound tonight to try to decrease the magic number further. His opponent will be Randy Wolf. Game-time is 8:10pm EDT.

Edmonds and Dickerson Tied Together Again
During last night’s game, Jim Edmonds was a late replacement for Joey Votto, who was taken out of the lineup thanks to a sinus infection. Edmonds hit a solo homerun, but injured himself running the bases. He may be out for the rest of the season.

In the trade that brought him from the Brewers to the Reds, Cincinnati sent Chris Dickerson. In a nice bit of symmetry, Dickerson also left last night’s game with a leg injury. He strained a hamstring.

What to Say to Sound Smart at the Water Cooler
Dusty Baker won his 1,400th game as a manager last night. He’s 238-238 with the Reds, and 1400-1279 overall.