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October 15, 2010

Looking to 2011

As everyone knows, the Cincinnati Reds season ended last weekend. Strangely, it was a 3 full months later than we’d grown accustomed to. And now we find ourselves looking forward to 2011, but it’s somehow different. This time, we’re not only expecting the Reds to be a winning team, but to repeat their finishing of first place in the National League Central.

It’s amazing how much one year can change things. Just think of what this team accomplished in 2010. The last winning season had been in 2000.n They were looking at a losing streak in the double-digits. That’s Pittsburgh Pirates territory, right there. With a record of 91-71, the 2010 squad didn’t even come close to having a losing year.

The last time the Reds had been to the playoffs and won their division was 1995, fifteen years ago. Not only did the Reds break their losing streak, but they grabbed first place and broke their postseason drought, too. Perhaps most excitingly, unlike the 2008 Milwaukee Brewers, who spent everything of value in their minor league system just to win the wild card, the Reds spent nothing. Their farm system is loaded with too many major-league ready players, many of them pitchers.

Pitching wins playoffs, and the Reds didn’t win this year. But their pitchers are still young. Bronson Arroyo, at 33, is the oldest and most experienced, and he pitched a great game. It was the playoff-shy defense that lost Arroyo’s start. Edinson Volquez is the second oldest starter at 26. All the other contenders for the rotation are 24 years old or younger. And most of them now have playoff experience.

You’ve got to think that with the poor showing this year, the players will all be more motivated to return in 2011 and show that they can win a playoff game. It happened with the Philadelphia Phillies. Their first year of being in the postseason after 14 years away ended in the same result as the 2010 Reds: a sweep in the first round. The next year? The won the World Series.

And there’s no reason the Reds can’t duplicate that success.

Here are the primary contenders for the starting rotation next year.

  • Bronson Arroyo
  • Edinson Volquez
  • Johnny Cueto
  • Homer Bailey
  • Travis Wood
  • Mike Leake
  • Aroldis Chapman

Not to mention, there’s dependable back-ups like Sam LeCure, Matt Maloney, and Micah Owings should anyone go down. That’s 10 quality starting pitchers, which is about 9 more than the Reds had for the majority of the 2000s.

I’m already excited about next year. It’s a good time to be a Reds fan.

October 11, 2010

MVP Exchange Rate to Determine Award

CINCINNATI – Cincinnati Reds’ first baseman Joey Votto appears to be a shoo-in for the National League Most Valuable Player award, but many don’t realize the important role the exchange rate plays in the decision.

“It’s tougher for a Canadian in this sport,” said Minnesota Twins’ Justin Morneau. “Not only do we have to be 1.01422 times the player of an American to be noticed, but we’re also relentlessly subjected to lumberjack jokes.”

Despite the iniquity, things are better today than they were just a few years ago for citizens of the Great White North. As recently as 2002, a United States player (USP) was worth one and a half Canadian players (CAP). Things have been much different since 2008, thanks to a soft USP.

“Five years ago things were even worse, eh?” said New York Mets’ outfielder and British Columbia native Jason Bay. “You’d think that no one would really care about the Home Run Derby, but you’d be wrong, hoser. Try not hitting any and see how your exchange rate drops.”

Baseball macroeconomists cite the undervalued Chinese player, pegged to the USP at 0.14988 as playing a role in this changing baseball economy, but most people don’t really understand what that has to do with anything.

“I saw that Votto play,” said Chicago Cubs’ starting pitcher Ryan Dempster. “When I wasn’t busy listening to Alanis Morisette and Glass Tiger. He’s definitely worth 1.01422 times the best American player out there.”

Most agree with Dempster. The real question is whether the beat writers can avoid choking on all these stale Canadian stereotypes long enough to do the math: how a whole season of Canadian Votto compare to one month of Venezuelan Carlos González with an exchange rate of 1:4,240.11.

October 8, 2010

The Daily Brief: NLDS, Take 2

Last Game
The Reds lost the first game. There might have been something historic about it or something. But it was just one loss in a best of 5 series, so it’s best to move on and turn our attention to the…

Next Game
Bronson Arroyo starts for the Cincinnati Reds, while Roy Oswalt goes for the Philadelphia Phillies. I believe this is the first time the Reds will face Oswalt as a Phillie. I have a good feeling that they’ll treat him much the way they did during the regular season. The first pitch is at 6:07pm EDT on TBS.

Today’s Reds Lineup
Dusty Baker is having Laynce Nix start in place of Jonny Gomes tonight and Ryan Hanigan in place of Ramon Hernandez. Nix has had great success against Oswalt, going 9 for 17 with 3 doubles and 2 home runs. Some of that would be most excellent. As for Hanigan, he’s been Arroyo’s personal catcher for the last half of the year. Personally, I’d do anything to lessen the odds of Bad-rroyo appearing.

  1. Brandon Phillips, 2B
  2. Orlando Cabrera, SS
  3. Joey Votto, 1B
  4. Scott Rolen, 3B
  5. Laynce Nix, LF
  6. Jay Bruce, RF
  7. Drew Stubbs, CF
  8. Ryan Hanigan, C
  9. Bronson Arroyo, P

What to Say to Sound Smart at the Water Cooler
In the 60 previous division series, the team that won the first game won the series 72% of the time.

October 7, 2010

Tomorrow’s Must Win

Must wins don’t come along too often in a baseball season. Certainly never in the first half of the season like some fans think.

But after yesterday’s shut-out, no-hit loss to the Philadelphia Phillies, the Cincinnati Reds are facing their first legitimate must-win game in years.

Edinson Volquez probably wasn’t the best choice to start Game 1 of the best of 5 series. But it is nice that for Game 2, the Reds will have Bronson Arroyo to send to the mound. He’s been there before, pitching in the playoffs with the Boston Red Sox. And he’s had the best year of any of the Reds starters, one of the best of Arroyo’s career. I’ve never been his biggest fan, but there is some comfort that will come from having him pitching tomorrow.

The hitters will have to show up, too. They’ve now played one game with the loud, loud, loud Phillies crowd. Much like how the Reds crumbled under the pressure back when Brandon Phillips called the St. Louis Cardinals “little bitches”, they did not play loose and relaxed in the series opener. That one game is really all the time they’ll have to learn. Because if they lose tomorrow, they would have to win 3 straight to get past the Phillies. And you know Roy “Mr. No-hitter” Halladay would be starting again.

Instead, the Reds will be facing Roy Oswalt, who they have owned for the past year and a half. Things could go well, so long as Bad-rroyo doesn’t make an appearance.

October 6, 2010

The Daily Brief: The Reds Postseason Starts Today!

Last Game
The Cincinnati Reds finished the 2010 regular season with a 3-2 win over the Milwaukee Brewers. They ended the year with their best record since 1999 at 91-71.

Next Game
Today’s the day we’ve all been waiting for: the Cincinnati Reds play a game in the playoffs. The Reds will be sending out Edinson Volquez to quiet the National League’s second best offense, while the Philadelphia Phillies will give the ball to Roy Halladay to quiet the National League’s best offense. The game will be broadcast on TBS, with the first pitch scheduled for 5:07pm EDT.

NLDS Roster Set
The Reds decided upon their roster for the National League Division Series yesterday, with the exception of one spot. The decision on Jim Edmonds being healthy was being held off until this morning. According to Mark Sheldon, he wasn’t deemed fit enough, so Juan Francisco takes his spot.

Here’s the playoff roster:

  • Catchers (2) — Ramon Hernandez and Ryan Hanigan.
  • Infielders (7) — Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips, Orlando Cabrera, Scott Rolen, Miguel Cairo, Paul Janish, and Juan Francisco.
  • Outfielders (5) — Jay Bruce, Drew Stubbs, Jonny Gomes, Chris Heisey, and Laynce Nix.
  • Starting pitchers (3) — Edinson Volquez, Bronson Arroyo, and Johnny Cueto.
  • Bullpen (8) — Francisco Cordero, Arthur Rhodes, Nick Masset, Aroldis Chapman, Logan Ondrusek, Bill Bray, Homer Bailey, and Travis Wood.

What to Say to Sound Smart at the Water Cooler
The Reds and Phillies are meeting in the postseason for the first time since 1976, when the Big Red Machine swept the Phillies while on their way to sweeping the World Series.