April 2, 2011

Fun with Small Sample Sizes

All right, gang, the 2011 baseball season is underway, and it’s high time to start predicting how teams and players will perform.

First off, the whole Cincinnati Reds team. They can easily be projected to finish the season at 162-0, a historic, never-before-done feat. Unfortunately, the Pittsburgh Pirates are on pace for the same mark.

Strangely, the Reds don’t project to have any starter win a single one of those 162 games, as the bullpen will get every single win. On the plus side, at least none of the starters are projected to have any losses.

As for players, Joey Votto looks to be even better this year than last. Based on his performance so far, we can expect a whopping 162 home runs from him and 324 runs batted in. He’d seem like a shoo-in for MVP were it not for teammate Ramon Hernandez who, in addition to those 162 home runs, is on track for an unbelievable 486 RBI. Votto will have a better slugging percentage, at 2.6 to Hernandez’s 2.2, so it’ll be up to the voters to decide.

Perhaps the best projection, though, comes from that of the St. Louis Cardinals. The 2010 MVP runner-up, Albert Pujols looks like he’ll have the worst contract year in the history of contract years. Based on his performance, we can predict a batting average of .000, and, in what will surely break the record, he will ground into 486 double plays.

The Cardinals are on pace to go winless on the season and also to lose 162 players to the disabled list. It’s going to be a rough year in St. Louis.

Comments are closed.